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Thread: Bubbles thread

  1. #1241
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    We have never left the ongoing effects of the 08 crash.. Look at Euro growth.. Look at the monetary stimulus.. Look at the credit rates..

    There has been no unwind, just a desperate postponement of the day of reckoning with central bank largess.

  2. #1242
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LivinLOS View Post
    It will be the end of multiple banks, lots of savings, and a domino effect of counter claims on assets or credit.. It already happened once, and the 'fix' clearly hasnt fixed it.
    To be fair, you've predicted a lot more than that though... including the collapse of major currencies even. What I've said ever since the early PI threads was that the key term for the developed world for years or even decades to come would be sluggishness. And that is exactly what we've experienced, and exactly what would be expected after such a severe balance sheet recession. A recession only historically comparable to the GD. It takes a long time to deleverage, and a long time for the credit markets to be repaired. Ironically, what ultimately ended the GD was government uber-spending on tanks and bullets...

    Quote Originally Posted by LivinLOS View Post
    We have never left the ongoing effects of the 08 crash.. Look at Euro growth.. Look at the monetary stimulus.. Look at the credit rates..

    There has been no unwind, just a desperate postponement of the day of reckoning with central bank largess.
    Again, I just profoundly disagree with your assessment. We are not in this mess because of some government largess of sorts. In fact, it has absolutely nothing to do with it. And if you're waiting for some kind of reckoning... whatever that entails.... you will be waiting in vain. You've been waiting for it for close to ten years now, and you will be waiting ten more. When you continue to misdiagnose how we got here in the first place, then you will also continue to get the predictions wrong. Just my humble opinion of course 555.
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  3. #1243
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Just to add, not saying that we won't have bubbles of course. Due in part to slow growth elsewhere, the US could be ripe for another financial asset bubble. But probably more like 1999 rather than 2008, and most certainly not the Mother or Bubbles discussed above.

  4. #1244
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Really pushed for online time as have biz distractions..

    Just for context.. This looks like ti will end well..


  5. #1245
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Again --- and this is just my personal opinion of course --- I still believe you are putting way too much focus on a single issue like inflation. In particular annual average inflation. Sure, the chart looks scary... but are we then to assume that things were so much better in the 1800s with negative inflation rates?

    And things were better then by what metric exactly? Look at numbers that really matter to peoples lives and the equation changes dramatically. Look at life expectancy, living standards, infant mortality, poverty rates... could go on and on. Do we really want to return to the 1800s? People don't hide money in mattresses anymore.

    What I do agree with you is that we are indeed in uncharted territories. We've discussed Black Swan events before, and I would never of course discount that they could occur at any moment. But I don't see any historical precedents for expecting any major bubbles to happen anytime soon. So I'll stick with Minsky's exuberance moment until I am convinced otherwise. And no, the world will not return to a gold standard. It has been tried before... and it failed. Today, every single currency on the planet uses a fiat system. And if you keep predicting hyperinflation due to QEs or government largess or whatever... you will continue to be proven wrong. So there 555.
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  6. #1246
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Just to add... Still confused as to exactly what kind of bubble you are predicting. Is it a GD / GR related event? Or is it hyperinflation similar to Zimbabwe or Weimar? Personally, I'm very confident that none of the macro economic or geopolitical fundamentals for any of those are ripe. Perhaps a mild financial asset bubble. At the most.

    Or are you expecting a Black Swan event of sorts? Seriously, the US currency or bond auctions won't blow up any time soon. As a matter of fact, a 3% inflationary increase is exactly what you would expect under a fiat monetary system, and every country on the planet could only wish for those kinds of numbers today. Problem arises when too many uncreditworthy customers are given private credit. You may prefer a gold standard, but that ain't what we got.

  7. #1247
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    Until Japan blows up ...it's business as usual, and even then there will just be a 'new yen', much as the Euro replaced all the legacy Eurozone currencies .... even if the US did blow up ...there would be a 'new dollar' (perhaps bitUSD) ... a return to any physical metal base is never going to happen.
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  8. #1248
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    Quote Originally Posted by sundancekid View Post
    Just to add... Still confused as to exactly what kind of bubble you are predicting. Is it a GD / GR related event? Or is it hyperinflation similar to Zimbabwe or Weimar? Personally, I'm very confident that none of the macro economic or geopolitical fundamentals for any of those are ripe. Perhaps a mild financial asset bubble. At the most.

    Or are you expecting a Black Swan event of sorts? Seriously, the US currency or bond auctions won't blow up any time soon. As a matter of fact, a 3% inflationary increase is exactly what you would expect under a fiat monetary system, and every country on the planet could only wish for those kinds of numbers today. Problem arises when too many uncreditworthy customers are given private credit. You may prefer a gold standard, but that ain't what we got.
    Inflation is also fed by more consumers buying the same availability of products. the old supply demand curve. I do believe Global population has dramatically risen in the last 50 years compared to previous....

  9. #1249
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dupree View Post
    Inflation is also fed by more consumers buying the same availability of products. the old supply demand curve. I do believe Global population has dramatically risen in the last 50 years compared to previous....
    Yes, I do hear you on that. But you've also previously made the case that the lack of increase in interest rates has also hurt savers.

    My case against the debt doomers has always been that the population increase as well as the GDP has risen from $1 Billion in 1970... to $20 + Billion today.

  10. #1250
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by K2 View Post
    Until Japan blows up ...
    So when will the Yen blow up? 2 - 5 years? It will not as hyperinflation is not imminent. As with most currencies it will continue to struggle with sluggishness...

  11. #1251
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    I dont have time to look through this thread, but you seriously think there is inflation in the U.S right now?



    Quote Originally Posted by LivinLOS View Post
    Really pushed for online time as have biz distractions..

    Just for context.. This looks like ti will end well..

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  12. #1252
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    Quote Originally Posted by sundancekid View Post
    Yes, I do hear you on that. But you've also previously made the case that the lack of increase in interest rates has also hurt savers.

    My case against the debt doomers has always been that the population increase as well as the GDP has risen from $1 Billion in 1970... to $20 + Billion today.
    I didn't make the case. It just is. You don't agree? It used to be the case where we had normal inflation rates but with 5% savings yields.

  13. #1253
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    Because if at first you dont succeed.. try try again..

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  15. #1255
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2girls1cup View Post
    I dont have time to look through this thread, but you seriously think there is inflation in the U.S right now?
    What is a the price of houses, cars, art, stock market if its not inflation ?? Seen NYC condo prices over the last 5 years ?? The price of a classic 911 ??

    What is the price of tuition, rent, and medical care rising if not inflation.. On the subject of medical, obamacare is seeing exchanges go out of business and demanding 15% per annum rises or leaving the market place.. Whats that ??



    oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: Revealing the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System

    Oil and energy have masked some aspects of CPI.. Anything thats a trophy assets or close to the banker class / investor class has appreciated.. Wages, and economic output have not been moving as the non investor class suffer the pain of QE..

    Its classic stagflation.

  16. #1256
    K2
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    Not Japanese ... don't worry the great bubble experiment is coming to a stock market in your country ....

    The Bank of Japan's Unstoppable Rise to Shareholder No. 1 - Bloomberg

    Of course - nobody must ever lose in the insane world we live in!
    Its My Life .....!

  17. #1257
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    I read a stat a few days ago where world money supply (at 83 trillion ??) is now 10x what it was at the turn of the millennium..

    Anyone been paying attention to the 'inflation free' Obamacare premiums ??

  18. #1258
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Now even the Rothschilds are coming out against Keynsian central bankers and finally saying what I have said for the last 5 or 6 years..

    World seeing ‘greatest monetary policy experiment in history’ - Rothschild

    His solution ??

    Rothschild Ups Gold Bets | Kitco News

  19. #1259
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LivinLOS View Post
    Anyone been paying attention to the 'inflation free' Obamacare premiums ??
    Ok, I'm certainly not going to be the one uncritically supporting the ACA. It is still an inherently flawed system. As far as I recall though, 2017 was always going to see a substantial hike increase due to the new provisions kicking in. Of course, these preliminary numbers are excluding the subsidies, which means that the real effects will not be as large. Besides, it's not as if double-digit increases were unfamiliar before 2010.

    Bottom line is still that 20 million more Americans have insurance today than before the law existed. And no, it is not suddenly going to implode unless it is replaced by a more sustainable system. Hopefully it all leads to and paves the way for single-payer 555.

  20. #1260
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    Quote Originally Posted by sundancekid View Post
    Ok, I'm certainly not going to be the one uncritically supporting the ACA. It is still an inherently flawed system. As far as I recall though, 2017 was always going to see a substantial hike increase due to the new provisions kicking in. Of course, these preliminary numbers are excluding the subsidies, which means that the real effects will not be as large. Besides, it's not as if double-digit increases were unfamiliar before 2010.

    Bottom line is still that 20 million more Americans have insurance today than before the law existed. And no, it is not suddenly going to implode unless it is replaced by a more sustainable system. Hopefully it all leads to and paves the way for single-payer 555.
    And the fact is. From an American who actually witnessed the rapid rise in HI Premiums years before OC. And one you actually used Obamacare in 2014. Obama Care did not cause the rise in rates. The Insurance Lobby did.

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