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Thread: How Often Do Gamblers Really Win? - interesting article

  1. #1
    Senior Member Robaht's Avatar
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    How Often Do Gamblers Really Win? - interesting article

    I stumbled across this article and thought it was a good read! Casinos make something like 80% of their money from 10% of the players, etc.

    How Often Do Gamblers Really Win? - WSJ.com

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    Nice article,

    Well timed as I'm 5 days from Vegas.
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    Senior Member Thin White Duke's Avatar
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    Back in the day if you were playing Blackjack and there were say 4 decks of cards talented people could card count right?

    But now with the card machines it's not possible.

    So by nullifying that skill the Casino's have an unfair advantage which I reckon spoils the game.

    Or am I wrong about that?

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    Senior Member nelsonone's Avatar
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    I only ever bet on rugby matches....I started an online betting account for this about 9 years ago with $NZ100....it is now at $1800 and has been at $2670 at one stage

    Frankly I don't really care whether i win or lose lately and have made some pretty high % bets which have seen it come down a little over the past year....however the end of year tours are coming up where the SH countries play the NH countries and i will place bets on wins rather than the more speculative accumulators i have favoured lately...I expect to be well above the $2K mark by Xmas again

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    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thin White Duke View Post
    Casino's have an unfair advantage which I reckon spoils the game.


    ............
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    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nelsonone View Post
    I only ever bet on rugby matches....I started an online betting account for this about 9 years ago with $NZ100....it is now at $1800 and has been at $2670 at one stage

    Frankly I don't really care whether i win or lose lately and have made some pretty high % bets which have seen it come down a little over the past year....however the end of year tours are coming up where the SH countries play the NH countries and i will place bets on wins rather than the more speculative accumulators i have favoured lately...I expect to be well above the $2K mark by Xmas again
    If you constantly bet on NZ... you'd likely accumulate quite a lot!

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    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    I wonder if this also applies to life in general? Like, are the “gamblers” or risk takers equally punished with a similarly dismal success rate?

    I’ve long had the opinion that pure unadulterated luck is an extremely important force when it comes to “making it” in life. But determination is also a factor, which does not seem to be the case with actual gamblers. Knowing when to stop though… and then secure your gains… might prove to be a more universal guide.
    Last edited by sundancekid; 13th October 2013 at 22:18.

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    Senior Member marc26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sundancekid View Post
    I wonder if this also applies to life in general? Like, are the “gamblers” or risk takers equally punished with a similarly dismal success rate?

    I’ve long had the opinion that pure unadulterated luck is an extremely important force when it comes to “making it” in life. But determination is also a factor, which does not seem to be the case with actual gamblers. Knowing when to stop though… and then secure your gains… might prove to be a more universal guide.
    i think "educated gamblers" in life are the ones who make it big. they ascertain the risks and then go for it

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    Senior Member Stillearly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sundancekid View Post
    I wonder if this also applies to life in general? Like, are the “gamblers” or risk takers equally punished with a similarly dismal success rate?

    I’ve long had the opinion that pure unadulterated luck is an extremely important force when it comes to “making it” in life. But determination is also a factor, which does not seem to be the case with actual gamblers. Knowing when to stop though… and then secure your gains… might prove to be a more universal guide.
    isn't it the same with Day Traders about 90% of those eventually lose money
    'If it floats, flies or fcuks , it's cheaper to rent"

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    Senior Member marc26's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stillearly View Post
    isn't it the same with Day Traders about 90% of those eventually lose money
    because most of them are not trading, they are gambling
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    Senior Member slampay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjwx View Post
    Nice article,

    Well timed as I'm 5 days from Vegas.
    Stupid article.

    Poorly timed as I just got back from Vegas.
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    Gamblers win all the time...
    At least if you believe Thai girlfriends

  13. #13
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sundancekid View Post
    [FONT=&]I wonder if this also applies to life in general? Like, are the “gamblers” or risk takers equally punished with a similarly dismal success rate?
    I think your extrapolating from one data set and bringing that bias to another..

    Casinos are designed to take your money.. From the basic strategy of the games, through to the ways they use to keep you playing.. Comparing success rates at playing casino games, to other risk ventures, isnt valid.

  14. #14
    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Yes, you are right of course about the structural design of the gambling industry. But some would claim that life is also heavily stacked against them 555.

    Was just struck by the sheer amount of luck involved for people who become hugely successful. As described in Gladwell’s Outliers. Be it demographic luck, cultural luck, generational luck etc. etc. Taleb also touches on a similar point in Fooled by Randomness. A general thesis being that there are huge dark numbers out there for every single one that succeeds. And then our inherent need to explain everything using non-random factors, when the world itself is mostly governed by randomness. Much like gambling.

    Also, the vast majority of species that have ever existed are now extinct, which could prove similar to the success rates of gamblers. Anyway, was just a random thought that struck my mind...


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    Quote Originally Posted by marc26 View Post
    i think "educated gamblers" in life are the ones who make it big. they ascertain the risks and then go for it
    Put simply, they gamble on bets they know they can win.

    Gambling to win is all about figuring out odds... after you've got that down pat you realise that most odds are stacked against you, in a casino doubly so.

    Few people are capable of gambling to win, most play with their feelings and not their head.
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