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Thread: Immortality or extinction.. Soon..

  1. #1
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Immortality or extinction.. Soon..

    Really good essay that I think people should make time to read..

    The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence - Wait But Why

    I have read Kurzweil since The age of intelligent machines sometime back in the 90s.. So I am familiar with the themes of singularity and Kurzweils ideas of human machine integration etc.. What this essay does it break it down into bite sized logical steps and outline why an artificial super intelligence is probably inevitable, probably within one human lifetime from now and why such a thing means one side or another the end of life as we know it, for good or bad.

    Part 1 is the simple stuff, part 2 is where it gets interesting.

    Best line in there, one I hadnt heard before, is that humans might just be “the biological boot loader for digital superintelligence”

    Very much worth the time to mull over.
    Last edited by LivinLOS; 26th May 2015 at 08:21.
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    Senior Member BroTiger's Avatar
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    Immortality or extinction.. Soon..

    I should really read the entire article before commenting too much, but this doesn't look like anything more than wishful thinking. There is currently no progressive trend toward computer systems that are actually intelligent, as opposed to simply able to store more data or being faster at doing what they do.

    To put it very simply, computers are very fast at adding numbers together, and moving bits of data around. That's it. Computer scientists at MIT were busy trying to concoct AI when I was there in the early 80s, and we are no closer to achieving machine intelligence. Things that we think are exciting such as facial recognition and playing chess aren't signs of actual intelligence, because the way computers do them is by adding numbers and manipulating data.

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    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroTiger View Post
    I should really read the entire article before commenting too much, but this doesn't look like anything more than wishful thinking. There is currently no progressive trend toward computer systems that are actually intelligent, as opposed to simply able to store more data or being faster at doing what they do.

    To put it very simply, computers are very fast at adding numbers together, and moving bits of data around. That's it. Computer scientists at MIT were busy trying to concoct AI when I was there in the early 80s, and we are no closer to achieving machine intelligence. Things that we think are exciting such as facial recognition and playing chess aren't signs of actual intelligence, because the way computers do them is by adding numbers and manipulating data.

    Totally disagree..

    The progress in ANI in simply the last decade or 5 years has been huge.. The first part of the essay deals with this issue, the way we project past trends as continuing at the same pace rather than an exponential pace..

    The aspect of transition from ANI to AGI (something that most scientists put out into the 2030 or more) will also take a long time.. but the probability that a VERY short time after AGI is developed we will see the unstoppable development of an ASI is where the crazyness happens..

    There are very few scientists that think this isnt coming, the debate is a case of is it 2030 or 2080 and if its going to be really really great, or really really terrible.

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    Senior Member BroTiger's Avatar
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    Immortality or extinction.. Soon..

    Sorry, still not buying it. The whole premise is that faster computers will inevitably lead from ANI to AGI to ASI. This is fundamentally flawed, though it's popular with armchair theorists.

    First of all, ANI isn't. That is, it's not intelligent. People's favorite examples are the chess and other game playing computers. When people excel at chess, they do it by learning from heir opponent, having lots of experience from studying other games and scenarios, and occasional intuitive leaps. Some of this is linear and some of it is not. Computers don't play chess the same way. They are programmed to assign values to the position of pieces on the board, then rapidly look ahead at a large number of possible moves to find piece positions with higher numerical scores. There' nothing actually intelligent about the way a computer plays chess. It's just fast number crunching. The intelligence resides in the minds of the engineers who came up with the chess playing algorithms, then designed a specialized computer architecture that was efficient at running those algorithms. That problem was and is vastly more complex than what the computer does.

    "Deep Blue didn't win by being smarter than a human; it won by being millions of times faster than a human. Deep Blue had no intuition. An expert human player looks at a board position and immediately sees what ares of play are most likely to be fruitful or dangerous, whereas a computer has no innate sense of what is important and must explore many more options. deep Blue also had no sense of the history of the game, and didn't know anything about its opponent. It played chess yet didn't understand chess, in the same way that a calculator performs arithmetic but doesn't understand mathematics." Jeff Hawkins, On Intelligence

    This also applies to other so-called ANI systems. They don't even remotely approach the problems they solve with any degree of awareness. Furthermore, they can never exceed the scope of their programming. Saying that we will transition from ANI to AGI using today's linear computing methods is like saying we will wave a magic wand and suddenly achieve warp drive. It won't happen that way. We will need to create completely different methods before there is any real possibility of machine intelligence.
    Last edited by BroTiger; 26th May 2015 at 17:41.

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    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Yet they deal with that in part one.. how ANI is progressing rapidly.. and in specialized systems doing very well and becoming so commonplace we dont even really think of siri or the google suggestion ads as AI...

    Almost no one in tech or the field thinks we wont achieve AGI and beyond the question is far more about when not if.

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    I'm glad you're worrying about this on our behalf LIL.
    Sipping from the Fountain of Youth that is Thailand.

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    Senior Member kris-one's Avatar
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    We are all still waiting for hyperinflation to kick off first




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    Senior Member sundancekid's Avatar
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    Not sure exactly about the scientific accuracy, but a very interesting piece I thought. With regard to the evolution of true AI it touches upon how “amino acids” can develop artificially / digitally. And when you begin looking at it from a physical perspective, it’s not really that different from the natural / biological world. It’s still mostly about neurons and how they connect with one another.

    The key is the initial “amino acid”. Although, if evolutionary theory has taught us anything, any kind of progress would also necessarily involve a certain amount of randomness. Or “mistakes” if you like. How can that be properly programmed?

    Been interested in stuff like Evolutionary Game Theory for some time, and even trying to incorporate parts of in my programming. On an extremely low-level basis of course, or the “deep learning” levels explained in the TED talks also referenced in the article. Is it possible that if all these ANIs bound together on a virtual AI dating site they could create a consciousness of sorts? Personally I believe the next few decades will be mind-blowing. Only trying to be healthy enough to enjoy it and stack up on the popcorn.

    Jeremy Howard: The wonderful and terrifying implications of computers that can learn | Talk Video | TED.com
    Last edited by sundancekid; 27th May 2015 at 00:19.

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    Senior Member Snakebite911's Avatar
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    Skynet.....
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    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    Before I read it.... does it mention that AI will ultimately prove that freewill does not exist... and how humanity will cope with that? The idea that every thought, every feeling, every decision is a consequence of something before... AI will ultimately prove we are all AI... just an organic form...
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    Senior Member nelsonone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waharoa View Post
    Before I read it.... does it mention that AI will ultimately prove that freewill does not exist... and how humanity will cope with that? The idea that every thought, every feeling, every decision is a consequence of something before... AI will ultimately prove we are all AI... just an organic form...
    what a load of crap..."AI will prove we are all AI..." 555

    errrrm..we have intelligence...of course development of that is through experimentation, learning and conditioning....however it is naturally occuring...any form of AI will be by definition artificial

    I accept that we are on a curve towards more refined versions of AI like autopilot cars etc and obviously these are real advancements....however I don't really share the enthusiasm some do for it when it comes to the search for the perfect human bot...we already have too many humans in this world...why do we need to try to manufacture synthetic versions of ourselves?
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  12. #12
    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nelsonone View Post
    what a load of crap..."AI will prove we are all AI..." 555

    errrrm..we have intelligence...of course development of that is through experimentation, learning and conditioning....however it is naturally occuring...any form of AI will be by definition artificial
    I hope we are both still alive when my theory is proved... My AI will buy your AI a beer while we discuss it... 555

    Here's a start from the article... imagine what it will be able to do in another 50 years...

    One example of computer architecture that mimics the brain is the artificial neural network. It starts out as a network of transistor “neurons,” connected to each other with inputs and outputs, and it knows nothing—like an infant brain. The way it “learns” is it tries to do a task, say handwriting recognition, and at first, its neural firings and subsequent guesses at deciphering each letter will be completely random. But when it’s told it got something right, the transistor connections in the firing pathways that happened to create that answer are strengthened; when it’s told it was wrong, those pathways’ connections are weakened. After a lot of this trial and feedback, the network has, by itself, formed smart neural pathways and the machine has become optimized for the task. The brain learns a bit like this but in a more sophisticated way, and as we continue to study the brain, we’re discovering ingenious new ways to take advantage of neural circuitry.

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    Senior Member nelsonone's Avatar
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    ^ I have no doubt scientists will sometime work out how the brain works and may well be able to "synthesise" that..possibly along the lines your article above is suggesting....however the result of that will still be Artificial and our (human) intelligence will still be naturally occurring...it won't prove our Intelligence is AI...it will just mimick it

    BTW...not a chance in hell it will be in my lifetine

  14. #14
    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nelsonone View Post
    ^ I have no doubt scientists will sometime work out how the brain works and may well be able to "synthesise" that however the result of that will still be Artificial and our (human) intelligence will still be naturally occurring

    BTW...not a chance in hell it will be in my lifetine
    I like a challenge... 555

    When there is an organically formed AI indistinguishable from humans in every way.... then is the AI no longer AI? Or are humans no longer humans? I think you are being too literal. I am saying that AI and humans will at some point become the same... and then AI will go past us... and is evolution in humans really that different to evolution in AI?

    Last edited by Waharoa; 27th May 2015 at 01:31.

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    Senior Member nelsonone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waharoa View Post
    I like a challenge... 555

    When there is an organically formed AI indistinguishable from humans in every way.... then is the AI no longer AI? Or are humans no longer humans? I think you are being too literal. I am saying that AI and humans will at some point become the same... and then AI will go past us... and is evolution in humans really that different to evolution in AI?
    555...I'm being literal???....you are the one who made the assertion...."AI will prove we are all AI"

    all it will prove if it is ever achieved is that our intelligence is mimickable...and even if it surpasses ours it will still be AI

    I don't ever see governments allowing a "mix" should this ever be achievable....and I say IF...hell we can't even experiment with stem cells for the foreseeable future based on ethical concerns
    Last edited by nelsonone; 27th May 2015 at 01:40.

  16. #16
    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nelsonone View Post
    555...I'm being literal....you are the one who made the assertion...."AI will prove we are all AI"

    all it will prove if it is ever achieved is that our intelligence is mimickable...and even if it surpasses ours it will still be AI
    But don't you think that is significant?

    When AI is no longer artificial.. ie it involves no input from humans... what is it then? Still artificial? Surely we have just kick-started the next superior intelligence.... humans started somewhere too... we didn't come from nothing...

    Abiogenesis... our little slow motion kick-start... where we over-took what created us...

    Our only hope is to hang on to AI's coat tails... or make it part of us...
    Last edited by Waharoa; 27th May 2015 at 03:00.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    What is particularly interesting is the idea that immortality can come from it.... but also for me, once AGI and ASI occur... how long before AI perfects time travel? And is it there already... and we're just part of AI's time travelling/warping game? Though the likely scenario is something no one human is yet to think of...


    Eventually, Kurzweil believes humans will reach a point when they’re entirely artificial;11 a time when we’ll look at biological material and think how unbelievably primitive it was that humans were ever made of that; a time when we’ll read about early stages of human history, when microbes or accidents or diseases or wear and tear could just kill humans against their own will; a time the AI Revolution could bring to an end with the merging of humans and AI.12 This is how Kurzweil believes humans will ultimately conquer our biology and become indestructible and eternal—this is his vision for the other side of the balance beam. And he’s convinced we’re gonna get there. Soon.
    Last edited by Waharoa; 27th May 2015 at 03:06.

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    Senior Member slampay's Avatar
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    Even tho this has nothing to do with Egypt, I find it interesting.

    Question? For some of us, we believe that there is life outside our solar system, and following this AI thingy, why hasn't that alien life form progressed enough for 'it' to have found us?
    A woman won The Nobel Peace Prize? Must have been a pretty good sandwich.

  19. #19
    Senior Member Waharoa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slampay View Post
    Even tho this has nothing to do with Egypt, I find it interesting.

    Question? For some of us, we believe that there is life outside our solar system, and following this AI thingy, why hasn't that alien life form progressed enough for 'it' to have found us?
    The article discusses exactly that and goes thru a number of scenarios why...

  20. #20
    Super Moderator LivinLOS's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nelsonone View Post
    555...I'm being literal???....you are the one who made the assertion...."AI will prove we are all AI"

    all it will prove if it is ever achieved is that our intelligence is mimickable...and even if it surpasses ours it will still be AI

    I don't ever see governments allowing a "mix" should this ever be achievable....and I say IF...hell we can't even experiment with stem cells for the foreseeable future based on ethical concerns
    I am unsure if you read the piece or kurzweil and others idea of the singularity..

    They theorize a super intelligence, which is unbounded by being able to make itself more intelligent as a development will likely solve the challenges of storing consciousness.. The idea being that human consciousness will be either uploaded or perhaps perfectly modeled in a digital form.. no death, no bodies, pure intelligence or pure consciousnesses within the system.. We will merge or be incorporated to the AI or as elements within the model..

    Which then brings me back to another oddball..

    There Is Growing Evidence that Our Universe Is a Giant Hologram | Motherboard

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